A friend who does foreign trade business asked me in a hurry this morning: ETH has already broken 3149, and everyone in the group is shouting 3500. Is it still possible to go all-in with the funds?

My answer is very straightforward.

The most ironic phenomenon in this market is: when it drops to 2900, no one cares, and that is the real opportunity; when it rises to 3100, everyone is celebrating, which is precisely a high-risk stage.

Looking at the current trend, the price has been stuck around 3123 and hasn't moved. Many believe this is a sign of "stabilizing rebound," a second attack after forming a bottom. But from another perspective, this could be a carefully designed "hunting phase."

Yesterday’s large bullish candle that shot straight from 3000 to 3149 triggered a short squeeze, creating an illusion of a "bull market restart." So why is it now consolidating around 3120? Simply put, it’s waiting for the trapped traders to be driven by anxiety, rushing to enter under the psychology of "missed the boat if I don’t get in now."

Once this group of funds flows in, the chips laid out at low positions early on will have an outlet for appreciation. This process is called "turnover" in the industry — buying chips at low prices and transferring them at high positions to new traders chasing the rally.

Market games are always zero-sum, and rationality is always more valuable than following the crowd.