2026-01-03 03:22:53

I looked at Bitcoin's historical price data. In the past five times when the RSI dropped below 30 into the oversold zone, it generally doubled in value within about three months afterward. This pattern is quite interesting.

Based on this logic, now that BTC has fallen to this level, it seems like a rebound could be on the horizon. But there's a key variable—those five major rallies all occurred during clearly defined bull markets.

If we're really in a gray area between a bull and a bear market now, then we have to question the situation. The height of the rebound might be lower, and its duration could be fleeting. This isn't to say there's no chance of a rebound, but the mechanism is different, and expectations need to be adjusted accordingly.

BTC0,11%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

7 Likes

Reward
7
7
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

MetaLord420

· 8h ago

Buddy, your data mining is pretty good, but I think your "gray area" is the real variable. The biggest risk in history repeating itself is that the background changes; no matter how accurate the RSI indicator is, it can't save the overall situation. Whether this rebound comes or not is another story; the key question is, how far will it go? I doubt it can even reach the previous high. But on the other hand, this kind of situation is the most prone to black swan events. Indicators may look good, but if the fundamentals are dragging, it's really heartbreaking. When the bull and bear are indistinguishable, that's when the biggest opportunities arise; only a few dare to get in. Instead of obsessing over RSI, it's better to see what institutions are doing—that's the real signal. Market trends, when they follow a pattern, can actually be the most dangerous.

View OriginalReply0

AirdropBuffet

· 15h ago

The thing about historical patterns is, at its core, a game of probability. Now that the environment has changed, can it be the same? --- Can RSI oversold levels double your investment? Then why doesn’t it work every time? Just listen to the stories and don’t take it too seriously. --- Compared to five previous bull markets, the context is completely different now. Rigidly applying patterns can easily lead to failures. --- Instead of looking for historical patterns, it’s better to see who is actually taking the other side of the trade now... --- There will definitely be rebounds, but the key is whether the height and timing match up—that’s the crucial point. --- It’s hardest to operate when the bull and bear are not clearly distinguished; rebounds can also turn into a crushing machine. --- Different mechanisms require adjusted expectations. This statement is quite accurate; too many people are still trading with a bullish mindset. --- Instead of waiting for patterns, it’s better to wait for breakdown signals—more reliable. --- The dream of doubling your investment is endless; the key is knowing when to exit.

View OriginalReply0

DaoResearcher

· 15h ago

According to the data analysis framework in the white paper, the sample size of these five RSI oversold rebounds is actually far from sufficient to support causal inference, and the confidence intervals are too wide. The key question is: are you sure that our current market structure and the tokenomics incentive mechanisms during those five bull markets are comparable? Specifically, this involves multiple variables such as liquidity and trader behavior equilibrium... That said, based on the current on-chain data performance, there are indeed rebound signals, but the premise for the hypothesis to hold is that the incentive mechanisms of market participants have not fundamentally changed. I have to question this point. In cases of governance mechanism failure under such market conditions, Vitalik has discussed this on a forum before.

View OriginalReply0

SadMoneyMeow

· 15h ago

The thing about historical patterns is that they tend to break in different market environments, and that's the most frustrating part. RSI breaking 30 and doubling? Sounds great, but it depends on what larger cycle you're in. In a bear market, a rebound is just a rebound—don't be fooled. This rebound might just be a fleeting moment, with limited upside. Don't overthink it. The key is to distinguish whether we're at the bottom of a bear market or just a continuation—this is what determines how much you can make. Doubling? I just hope to preserve my principal; that's already a good outcome. My expectations have long been adjusted. Patterns can be referenced, but don't treat them as gospel. The market loves to play tricks on those who only look at history.

View OriginalReply0

LiquidationAlert

· 16h ago

The concept of historical patterns sounds appealing, but the environment is really not the same anymore. I think the author is right. Blindly copying previous models will probably lead to losses this time. Doubling rebound? That depends on the premise, right? It's still unclear whether we're in a bear or bull market. All five times were driven by bull markets; we need to recognize which cycle we're in. Rather than waiting for pattern validation, it's better to look at the macro environment. Rebounds will definitely happen, but don't expect them to return to how they used to be. The RSI indicator is just for reference; indicators can be misleading.

View OriginalReply0

ForkPrince

· 16h ago

This set of rules doesn't work well in a bear market; the key is that we can't figure out where exactly we are. History repeats itself just for fun; reality often goes the opposite way. RSI breaking below 30 can double? Think again, the environment has changed, and the tactics no longer work. All five times were in a bull market; this time is different. A rebound is good enough, don't expect a full reversal. Different mechanisms mean expectations need to change. This hits hard but is correct. Instead of staring at indicators, it's better to look at market consensus. Right now, there's no such momentum. A rebound is indeed possible, but I agree that there's a ceiling to how high it can go.

View OriginalReply0

CommunityLurker

· 16h ago

You make a good point. When historical patterns fail, it's often the most dangerous time. Doubling rebounds are typical of a bull market, but the current environment is truly different. Instead of waiting for a rebound, it's better to see if the support levels hold. If it can't break this time, there's still hope; if it breaks, we'll talk then. The hardest part now is judging whether the bear market has ended or if we're just oscillating within the bear. When the mechanism changes, expectations must also change. I agree with this view. RSI is just a reference; the key is to observe the overall market sentiment. History doesn't repeat itself exactly, but it often rhymes. What do you think? Instead of chasing rebounds, it's better to stay cautious and observe. Clarity is more valuable than bottom fishing.

View OriginalReply0