Recently, the wave of "Federal Reserve's precise rate cut roadmap for 2026" has made many people feel overly optimistic. A 25 basis point cut in March, another round in June—sounds as reliable as watching a fixed-plot TV drama. But what is the truth? It’s just some big bank analysts’ brainchild, a "pie" they cooked up on a whim.

Reality has poured a cold water on the market. The Fed officials' attitude is very clear: "The data isn’t in place yet, why rush?" The latest dot plot directly reveals the truth—there might only be one rate cut throughout the year, and some hawkish officials even threaten to "not cut at all." Currently, the market’s probability of a rate cut in March has fallen below 40%, a chance harder to hit than pulling a hidden card.

Why is it so difficult? Inflation remains sticky, economic growth can still support the current situation, and Powell’s "wait-and-see" approach is playing perfectly. Any black swan—resurgence of inflation, escalation of geopolitical tensions, sudden changes in fiscal policy—could shatter all expectations of rate cuts.

So, how should the money in hand be allocated? If a rate cut really happens, government bonds are the first choice—steady and earning interest. Then, tech growth stocks, which have room for valuation recovery; the Nasdaq might take off. As for cryptocurrencies? Honestly, it’s a sentiment-driven market—rising to the sky when bullish, halving when bearish, requiring strong psychological resilience.

What’s the bottom line? There might be rate cuts in 2026, but the timing and magnitude are all part of a chess game. Don’t be brainwashed by headlines like "bottom-fishing for quick riches." The real defense is to closely monitor data and control your positions. If the hawkish Fed opens its mouth, and you’re still fully invested, you’ll only see your account turn green and feel like crying. Rational observation and cautious operation are the way to survive until Bitcoin truly takes off.