#比特币价格预测 The $143,000 baseline forecast provided by Citibank is indeed worth paying attention to, but I am more interested in the logical chain behind this report.

Let's review the key information: a 62% upside forecast, a $70,000 support level, and a rebound in ETF demand as the upward driver—all pointing to the same hypothesis, which is continuous institutional capital inflow. The issue is that at the current price of $88,000, I need to track on-chain fund movements to verify the validity of this hypothesis.

The difference between the pessimistic scenario of $78,500 and the optimistic scenario of $189,000 essentially reflects different judgments about the macro environment and institutional demand. The downward pressure amid a global recession versus the upward pressure from increased investor demand—these two forces' interplay determines the actual trajectory.

From an on-chain perspective, the key is to monitor changes in the volume of large transactions inflowing to and outflowing from exchanges. If ETF demand is truly the driving force, we should see stable signals of institutional-level fund inflows. If the $70,000 support level can really hold, it could provide a more solid foundation for subsequent rises.

But forecasts are ultimately predictions; the most practical approach now is to set up observation indicators and let the data speak.