The crypto market experienced intense volatility in 2025. After entering 2026, many investors still indulge in the narratives of past bull markets, overlooking the real risk signals and potential opportunities in the K-line charts. Today, I want to analyze the true situation of Bitcoin and Ethereum from a technical perspective, especially the changes in Ethereum's monthly chart structure, which is crucial for subsequent capital allocation.

First, let's look at Bitcoin's yearly performance. The yearly close in 2025 is hard to be optimistic about — not only a bearish candle but also with a clear long upper shadow. What does this pattern indicate? Extremely heavy selling pressure above, bulls pushing higher but unable to sustain, almost retesting lower levels. Based on this trend, my judgment is: it will be quite difficult for Bitcoin to hit a new high in 2026. More likely, it will undergo a deep correction along the gains since 2023, representing a major retracement.

Here, an important reminder must be given: **Do not mistake a rebound for a reversal**. Whether it's a 4-hour or daily timeframe rally, fundamentally, it's just a fluctuation within the correction process. These rebounds are precisely the window for reducing positions, not signals for adding at the bottom. Those blindly bottom-fishing during trend adjustments may end up standing on the sidelines. Time will tell.

Now, let's delve into the technical details — Bitcoin's support level framework. Remember these key levels: the 5-period moving average (MA5) on the yearly chart at $65,600, the previous bull market top at $69,000, and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the long bullish candle in 2024 at $67,900. These three support levels form what is called the "life and death line." Within this range, the market will oscillate repeatedly, possibly with false breakouts, but the principle remains — support levels in a trend correction will ultimately be broken, it's just a matter of time. Once the market consolidates within this range and then breaks downward, the next target becomes worth watching.

For Ethereum, the changes in the monthly chart structure are equally worth in-depth analysis. Those who understand all this are quietly preparing for the next round of capital deployment. The market always rewards those who do their homework in advance.