Will Bitcoin still surge in 2026? The latest institutional forecasts are out, and the tone has changed.

Once upon a time, during each halving cycle, the market was filled with fervent calls to push Bitcoin to 300,000 or 500,000 USD. But now, analysts are quietly lowering their expectations—Bitcoin's bullish narrative is becoming more "rationalized."
1. Institutions collectively "downgrade" their outlook, expectations cut in half
Recently, Standard Chartered updated its forecast, slashing the 2026 Bitcoin target price from $300,000 directly to $150,000. The reason is quite practical: institutional funds entering through ETFs are far less than previously expected. Coincidentally, Bernstein also gave a similar judgment: by the end of 2026, it expects $150,000, and by the end of 2027, possibly $200,000. They also pointed out that Bitcoin may be gradually moving away from the past "severe volatility every four years," toward a more resilient long-term trajectory—perhaps indicating that Bitcoin's narrative as "digital gold" has taken another step forward.
2. Market divergence still exists, but far from just "shouting slogans"
Of course, there are still different voices in the market: optimistic ones like Fundstrat see a bullish target of $200,000-$250,000; conservative forecasts focus on the $110,000-$135,000 range.
Despite the obvious gap, a common point is that most analyses are based on actual factors such as capital flows and ETF data, rather than purely emotional driving forces.
3. Behind rationality, risks still remain
In a landscape of "rationalized" expectations, technical risks have not disappeared. Some analysts warn that if historical trends repeat, Bitcoin could still experience deep retracements, even dropping to the $40,000-$70,000 range, with volatility remaining normal. However, the current market structure is different from before. Funds through formal channels like ETFs may provide some buffer during declines—but this does not mean risks can be ignored.
4. The market is maturing, and how should you view it?
Institutional forecasts shifting from "exaggeration" to "pragmatism" may signal that the market is entering a more mature phase. When emotions fade, fundamentals and technicals will dominate, and Bitcoin may truly move toward broader asset recognition. The 2026 market is not yet here. Maintaining rationality amid volatility and staying cautious amid optimism may be the attitude every participant should adopt. $GT