Recently, I organized the year-end on-chain data analysis, and I remain somewhat cautious about the future of BTC. Although I maintain a long-term optimistic attitude towards Bitcoin and do not believe the market has already entered a bear market, it is still difficult to confidently say that the bull market has been confirmed.

The most straightforward indicator is price performance. Many investors become excited when BTC breaks through $90,000, thinking that a turnaround is imminent. The problem is that this $90,000 level seems to consistently act as a "ceiling." Although the price has broken through, it has not yet fully digested this psychological resistance.

Last night, the Nasdaq index experienced a pullback, which directly triggered volatility in the crypto market. This correlation reminds us once again: the current trend of BTC cannot avoid being influenced by the macro environment. As long as mainstream assets like the stock market and the US dollar index continue to send uncertain signals, Bitcoin will need stronger support to truly stand independently.