#日本央行加息政策 Seeing the market reaction after this wave of Japanese rate hikes, I am reminded of an old topic—why do some people make money during volatility, while others suffer heavy losses?

Carefully examining these two pieces of information, on the surface, it appears that many analysts are unanimously bullish and target prices are being raised across the board. However, there are some details behind the scenes that are worth pondering. The holdings of that "insider whale" are a bit concerning—after adding to positions and averaging down, the long position unrealized losses have expanded to $78.3 million, with ETH holdings showing an unrealized loss of up to 58%, and the liquidation price is quite close. What does this indicate? It shows that even with large funds and great wisdom, if the position is too heavy and leverage too high, it can be easily caught off guard by the market.

I want to share an observation from a long-term investor: whenever the market shows a "unanimous bullish" sentiment, it is often the time when risks are most easily overlooked. It’s not that bullish analysis is flawed, but those betting with 5x, 20x leverage on target prices are essentially exchanging safety for returns. We don’t have to participate in this game.

Instead of chasing target prices like $106,000 or $4,500, ask yourself first: Is my position management healthy? Can I withstand every fluctuation between the current price and the liquidation price? Is my long-term mindset truly strong enough? The answers to these questions are often more important than simply being bullish or bearish on a target.

Whether it’s rate hikes or market rebounds, for prudent investors, these are part of the medium- to long-term story. Patience and composure are key to going further.