During New Year's Eve, I didn't go out to celebrate; instead, I was analyzing a set of quite interesting market data—silver's premium reached 73%, while Bitcoin was trading at a 13% discount. Coupled with McGlone's recent downward forecasts, the investment opportunities and risks in 2026 are indeed intertwined. As someone who has been doing long-term market analysis, I believe there are many noteworthy details hidden behind these signals.

I decided to organize this review and focus on how to use the 50-week moving average indicator. It's crucial for understanding the trends of silver and Bitcoin.

The logic of the 50-week moving average isn't complicated—it's simply the average of the past 50 weeks' prices, reflecting the long-term direction of the asset. When the price is far above this line, it indicates that market sentiment has been overly inflated, and the price has deviated from fundamentals, so a correction is likely. Conversely, if the price falls below the moving average, it may continue to find a bottom until it encounters a new support level. This principle applies to all financial assets—silver, Bitcoin, stocks—all follow the same logic.

Looking at silver's performance, the year-end price is around $72 per ounce, which is 73% above the 50-week moving average. This premium is nearly the highest in the past decade. Some people explain this by pointing to the unstable global economic situation and the influx of safe-haven funds into precious metals. This explanation isn't entirely wrong but only scratches the surface. The real driving force is a large amount of speculative capital continuously leveraging into the market during this cycle.