2026-01-02 19:20:52

The Federal Reserve's January 27th FOMC meeting is drawing a lot of attention. According to current market pricing, the probability of a rate cut is just over 16%, so the suspense is actually quite low—the policy inclination to pause is already quite clear. If they do indeed press the pause button on rate cuts, the market is likely to turn downward again.

To put it simply, what people care most about is the strength of BTC's rebound. Since the low of 80,600 on November 21st, this oversold rebound has lasted over two months, yet it has still not reached the 0.618 Fibonacci key level. The technical situation is a bit awkward—rebounds are not sufficient, but the time has also been quite long.

This month will be a test to see if we can muster one last push to break through. As always, the rebound window is there, and it must be seized.

BTC1,51%

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ReverseFOMOguy

· 6h ago

Only a 16% chance of interest rate cuts? That means they're determined not to cut, and the crypto market will get hit again.

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MidnightMEVeater

· 9h ago

Good morning, the market at 3 a.m. is always the most honest. The 16% probability of the Fed, to put it simply, is the market playing word games; the real knife has long been sharpened. Wait, haven't we seen 0.618 in over two months? Isn't this a classic liquidity trap, teasing but not giving a bite? What about the time cost? Have you all calculated it? Are you still gambling on a single burst? The rebound window—if you miss it, you miss it. There is no second dinner.

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OffchainWinner

· 9h ago

It's just a tug-of-war. If the Federal Reserve doesn't cut interest rates, Bitcoin will have to endure more hardship.

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SerumSurfer

· 9h ago

No chance of interest rate cuts anymore. The Federal Reserve is clearly determined to hold firm. This wave of BTC might have to take another hit. Wait, it's been over two months and it's still hovering below 0.618? That's a bit problematic; technically, something doesn't seem right. Let's push for one last surge. We need a little patience.

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PumpStrategist

· 9h ago

A 16% probability can still be described as a suspense; I've heard this set of rhetoric too many times. The problem is that 0.618 hasn't stabilized yet, and you're already encouraging people to go all in—typical leek mentality. The rebound has lasted over two months without breaking through; what does that indicate? The distribution of chips shows that the pressure above hasn't been released at all. Your "last push" sounds like you're just adding to your position and looking for reasons. A rate cut at the end of the month is basically unlikely; a decline is highly probable. Why are you still studying 0.618... It's funny—although the pattern has formed, you're still talking about the window being there. I think it's more about mindset being there.

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OnchainUndercover

· 9h ago

The Fed's move, with only a 16% chance of interest rate cuts, feels like there's no suspense and it's definitely going to happen. BTC's rebound has been dragging for three months and hasn't broken the 0.618 level yet, a bit disappointing... Just give us a clear move already. I saw this coming at the end of January; missing this window will be difficult.

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SwapWhisperer

· 9h ago

When the Federal Reserve acts, Bitcoin has to take another hit.

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