Ethereum falls below 3100, but whales are increasing their holdings

According to the latest news, ETH broke below the 3100 USDT level today, with the current price at 3099.44 USDT. This seemingly simple price correction hides a deeper market divergence among participants. Funds are accumulating on exchanges, while institutions and large holders are buying the dip. What is the market brewing?

Short-term Adjustment or Trend Reversal

From the data, ETH’s drop below 3100 is not an abrupt crash. According to information data, ETH only declined 0.34% within 1 hour, but still rose 3.88% over 24 hours, with a 7-day increase of 6.11%. This indicates that the current correction is a technical pullback within an uptrend, not a change in direction.

Price trend comparison

True Attitudes of Market Participants

Interestingly, while ETH’s price is correcting, market participants’ attitudes are clearly diverging.

Accumulation Camp

Li Lihua (Founder of Liquid Capital), based on short squeeze logic and optimism about a bull market in 2026, states he will continue to add to ETH holdings, including controlled borrowing. His logic is similar to the operation in the first half of 2025 when ETH was in the 1000-2000 USD range; fluctuations of a few hundred dollars are not worth worrying about, the key is the recognition of the trend.

Arthur Hayes is also increasing his holdings of DeFi tokens like ENA and ETHFI. While some question whether selling Ethereum to shift into DeFi is wise, it essentially reflects institutions seeking more growth opportunities.

De-risking and profit-taking camp

“Brother Maji” Huang Licheng has adopted a different strategy. According to the latest news, he liquidated his HYPE long position on January 2nd. Currently, he holds a 25x leveraged long position of 7,550 ETH, with an unrealized profit of about $750,000 over the past week, with 2 profitable trades out of 3. This indicates that in leveraged trading, he has chosen to take partial profits to lock in gains.

On-Chain Signals Are Warning

More noteworthy is the on-chain fund flow. According to data, on January 2nd, ETH saw a large influx of funds into Binance, with a net inflow of 24,500 ETH, reaching the highest level since July.

What does this mean?

• Increased exchange supply: Usually a precursor to selling pressure
• Whale preparations: Large holders may be preparing to sell or hedge derivatives
• Short-term pressure: Increased exchange supply may limit ETH’s short-term upside

Meanwhile, US Ethereum spot ETFs are also net outflows. On January 1st, there was a net outflow of $72 million, with Grayscale outflow of $32 million and BlackRock’s ETH A outflow of $21.5 million. This reflects that institutional investors are not yet fully confident at this price level.

True Reflection of Market Structure

The current situation can be summarized as: short-term bearish, but long-term bulls are holding firm.

• Spot ETF outflows: Institutions are cashing out profits or waiting
• Exchange funds piling up: Traders are hedging derivatives or preparing to sell
• Large holders diversifying and adding positions: Long-term optimistic institutions are positioning during the correction
• Leverage traders taking profits: Short-term gains are substantial enough

Key Levels to Watch Moving Forward

According to data, Huang Licheng’s liquidation price is $2,869.24, which could serve as a technical support. Li Lihua’s logic suggests that if no systemic risk occurs, the $2000 level may become an important support zone.

In the short term, whether ETH can hold or break below $3100 will determine the next direction. Holding above may lead to a continued rebound; breaking lower could test further support levels.

Summary

ETH breaking below 3100 is not a major event, but it exposes the current market reality: short-term profit-taking is prevalent, but confidence in the long-term outlook remains. Funds flowing into exchanges and spot ETF outflows indicate short-term pressure, but large institutional buying suggests preparations for the next phase.

The key is to distinguish short-term noise from medium-term trends. For long bullish investors, vigilance at key support levels is necessary; for those on the sidelines, waiting for clearer signals may be prudent. The market always reflects participant sentiment, and when disagreements are large, opportunities tend to be abundant.