Global asset management giant Fidelity has just released a 2026 outlook for the crypto market, and the content is quite substantial. Their conclusion is straightforward: be cautious now, but don't be overly pessimistic.

Fidelity's Digital Assets Research team pointed out several noteworthy trends. First is the action at the national level—more and more countries are facing "Bitcoin reserve pressure." Once a country takes the lead in deploying crypto reserves, other nations are likely to follow suit to avoid falling behind. From a supply and demand perspective, this will undoubtedly support prices.

Second is the dual nature of corporate buying. Increasing holdings by companies can indeed boost the market, but the problem is: during a bear market, if these institutions all rush to exit, the decline could be much sharper than expected. This tests the resilience of the entire market.

Regarding the cycle theory, Fidelity believes that the four-year cycle has not failed, but its manifestation is evolving. Human nature's fear and greed always exist, which means market volatility will continue. As for whether we are at the start of a bear market or a correction in a bull market, it may not be clear until the second half of 2026.

The most thought-provoking statement is: "The incremental funds brought in by traditional fund managers are only just being touched upon." — From a different perspective, the story of large capital entering the market is still in its early stages. Short-term fluctuations are inevitable, but the real turning point may still be waiting until 2026. Do you think you are still on the sidelines, or are you already prepared?