"Why is there no large price peak or bubble for Bitcoin in 2025? When will the next price bubble occur?"

The periodic logarithmic timing, not linear periodic timing

An article by Steven Perrenod

This is not investment advice for gold or Bitcoin

I will first present a summary of the article, then the details.

-Summary:
The main behavior of Bitcoin's price consists of:
A steady scale expressed by a power law with an exponent of approximately 5.3 relative to gold and 5.7 relative to the dollar.

The stability of the discrete scale (DSI) manifests in punctuated bubble events, where new larger capital classes are only allowed into the system after the price and market cap reach a sufficient level to attract those classes, and after regulatory frameworks permit it. Discrete scale stability events can be modeled as LPPL bubbles and their collapses.

The 2013 bubble was characterized by individual participation, early Bitcoin miners, the first Bitcoin startups, and the first generation of trading platforms. The 2017 bubble involved hedge funds, family offices, and other high-net-worth individuals, with GBTC trading starting in 2015. It peaked with the launch of CME futures contracts in December 2017, enabling short selling and effective hedging. The 2021 bubble was supported by some corporate treasuries and limited government participation. Thanks to increased institutional involvement and infrastructure expansion, greater capacity for hedging and shorting was available, helping to end the bubble and allowing the price to gradually return to its natural trajectory.

The next major adoption wave, centered around 2026 and 2027, is expected to push Bitcoin's market cap toward about $5 trillion, making it attractive to large corporations and sovereign wealth funds, with increasing long-term accumulation by governments (pension funds and national treasuries). Discrete Bitcoin bubbles reflect levels of global capital—from individuals to funds, to corporations, and governments—producing a dynamic market indicator behavior (DSI) and decreasing volatility associated with rising market cap and institutional behavior.

No level can be reached unless Bitcoin's size, liquidity, and credibility are sufficient, which takes longer and longer as it grows according to Bitcoin's power law with yields decreasing at rate k/t. - 5

The fundamental pattern of the DSI index features a wavelength λ = 2.07 in logarithmic time, roughly doubling the interval between bubbles. The 2017 bubble was the last fundamental pattern, while the 2021 bubble was the first harmonic, and a bubble in 2025 was not expected within this framework. The next Bitcoin bubble, measured in gold value, is projected to peak somewhere between the last quarter of 2026 (minimum wave analysis) and the second quarter of 2027 (Fourier analysis value.

Article details:
-Disruption of linear assumption:
The largest Bitcoin bubbles in history occurred in 2011, 2013, 2017, and 2021. Despite many Bitcoin supporters expecting a four-year cycle, there was no bubble in 2025.

Why? Because people were drawn to the narrative of bubbles occurring on a linear four-year cycle, expecting peaks after the four-year halving cycles in 2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024. This narrative was further reinforced by references to the business cycle and U.S. presidential election years.

I experienced the same with the assumption of a four-year linear cycle.

Last year, I increasingly modeled Bitcoin bubbles, separating the analysis into the fundamental power law region and the bubble region.

What became clearer is the decreasing energy of the bubble, roughly the inverse of Bitcoin's age, or according to the power law to the power of -0.83.

People also mistakenly assumed that bubbles would be large in percentage terms, while it is clear that the bubble's strength diminishes. The research presented in this article indicates that bubbles also extend in the temporal spacing.

But what about 2011? It has become common to dismiss the 2011 bubble as an early event outside the economic cycle. However, that massive 2011 bubble was as significant as the 2013 and 2017 bubbles and deserves the same attention. What if bubbles do not occur periodically in a linear fashion but in a logarithmic cycle? This behavior is called logarithmic periodicity.

-Logarithmic periodic bubbles result from Bitcoin's power law.
$GT #My2026FirstPost