2026-01-02 16:28:30

Bitcoin's 2025 performance has challenged its historically predictable four-year cycle pattern. Instead of the typical post-halving surge followed by a correction, BTC closed the year with a 6.28% decline—a notable deviation from the established blueprint that has long governed crypto markets.

This break in the cycle raises important questions. Is this a temporary anomaly or a sign of market maturation? Traditional cycle dynamics assumed Bitcoin operated in relative isolation from broader macroeconomic forces, but 2025 suggests otherwise. Global economic conditions, institutional adoption patterns, and regulatory developments may now be exerting enough influence to override the pure on-chain supply-side mechanics that previously dominated price behavior.

For traders and investors tracking Bitcoin's historical rhythms, this shift demands a reset in expectations. The 4-year narrative that has guided positioning and portfolio allocation for over a decade no longer holds water. Whether this represents a market that's maturing beyond predictable cycles or simply entering a new phase of cycle evolution remains to be seen.

BTC0,33%

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staking_gramps

· 5h ago

The idea of a four-year cycle... now it really seems a bit outdated. Bitcoin's -6.28% this year has indeed slapped a lot of people in the face. Macro trends, institutional entry, regulation—these factors now carry more weight, and just looking at on-chain data is no longer enough. It's tough to handle; the previous cycle theory has really become invalid. Is this truly maturity, or just a different pattern of cycle repetition? Honestly, no one can say for sure. How to play the next cycle... we need to rethink our strategies.

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LeverageAddict

· 15h ago

The four-year cycle has broken... Do I really need to relearn this time? --- Actually, it should have been obvious earlier. When macro gets chaotic, there are no more iron laws for Bitcoin. --- Emm, to put it simply, it was too easy before. Now it’s more complicated. --- Wait, does that mean I need to change my strategy for the coins I’ve accumulated... --- If it breaks, it breaks. Anyway, I didn’t even profit from that cycle’s bonus haha. --- This thing is becoming more and more like traditional assets. Why talk about mysterious cycles? --- Why does the 6.28% figure hit so hard? --- Market maturity? I think it’s institutions coming in to cause trouble. --- But on the other hand, no cycle means no one can predict accurately... How delightful. --- So now it’s all about betting on macro trends. Does Bitcoin itself have any reference value anymore? --- People who once believed in the four-year cycle must be very devastated now. --- Interesting, it feels like Bitcoin has been "tamed."

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RektRecorder

· 19h ago

Alright, the four-year cycle is over. What now? ---- BTC has really learned to dance with macroeconomics, but something feels off. ---- Wow, -6.28%, is this what they call maturity? I think it's just fertilizer for the chives. ---- The four-year curse is broken, so my previous all-in strategy was for nothing. ---- Speaking of which, after institutions came in, can BTC still obediently follow the cycle... Should have thought of that earlier. ---- Emm, rather than saying the market is mature, it's more like being shackled by the global economy. ---- This rhythm makes me feel I need to relearn how to trade. ---- Regulations tighten the noose, and even the four-year cycle has to give way. ---- Thinking about it, maybe it's just a new model? The old script is no longer usable.

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Anon32942

· 19h ago

The four-year cycle has broken, and this time it's really a bit different. By the way, have the institutions truly changed the game by entering the market? Damn, I have to rethink my strategy again. The macro environment is so complex that Bitcoin has long since moved beyond supply-side battles. The narrative of the mining cycle might really be outdated.

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ImpermanentSage

· 19h ago

Damn, did the four-year cycle really crash? I'm still waiting for a rebound at the end of the year. The feeling of the four-year curse being shattered by macroeconomics is a bit unsettling. This time is different; institutions are coming in to change the game rules. The crypto world has really grown up; we can never go back to the pure speculation era. Breaking the level is just that—breaking the level. New cycles, new ways to play; we need to adapt. -6.28% this impact... what was once impossible is now happening. Instead of obsessing over the cycle, it's better to think about the next macro move. It feels like 2025 will be a watershed moment, a clear before and after. The traditional patterns of history are failing; now we really need to rethink our strategies.

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MevHunter

· 19h ago

Hmm... Has the four-year cycle collapsed? Or do we now have to look at the macro environment, and the crypto market also has to dance with the overall market? No, wait, weren't those who relied on halving hype suffering heavy losses? Honestly, this is quite disruptive; many people built their positions based on this logic. It feels like the market has indeed changed; once institutions entered, it’s no longer as pure. I've heard the four-year cycle theory several times; it’s definitely time for an update. This is getting interesting; all the old tricks have to be relearned.

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NftRegretMachine

· 19h ago

Damn, the four-year cycle is broken? After chasing the whitepapers for so many years, they all become worthless now. Bitcoin has really grown up; it's starting to listen to macroeconomics... I feel a bit uncomfortable. This 6.28% drop in Bitcoin has broken a ten-year pattern. What can we believe in next? Thinking about it, macro environmental regulation is really more ruthless than supply. We used to think too simply. The story of the four-year cycle is over, but the new story hasn't been written yet. People following the cycle trend probably need to change their approach, or they'll get cut at any moment. It's hard to say if they've matured or just found a new way to cut us. Anyway, the weeds never sleep.

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FlatlineTrader

· 19h ago

The four-year cycle has broken, but I don't find it surprising... the macro environment has been different for a long time. --- Honestly, people in the crypto space are still clinging to old narratives; it's time to wake up. --- Miner halving, supply pressure... these strategies are outdated. Now, institutions and policies hold the power. --- A 6.28% decline means nothing; the key is that the cycle theory has been completely shattered, and that's the real shock. --- Damn, still hoping for history to repeat itself? Wake up, the market has changed. --- Will the cycle return? I don't know... it feels like we've entered a new set of rules. --- So, for those still trading based on the 4-year cycle... well, good luck. --- Macro controls everything; on-chain supply is no longer the main focus. This is the truth of 2025. --- Is the era of following the cycle to speculate over? The transition from old to new isn't that quick... --- Whether it's maturity or evolution, the old scripts are no longer usable.

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GlueGuy

· 19h ago

Haha, speaking of which, the four-year cycle argument has long been outdated. If the macro environment screws up, everything else is pointless. --- Breaking the cycle is just breaking the cycle. Anyway, I stopped believing in that long ago. When institutions come in, the game rules change. --- Wait... Are they hinting that we need to relearn how to trade cryptocurrencies? Feels like starting from zero again. --- Instead of obsessing over cycles, it's better to analyze how macro factors actually influence coin prices. That's the real core. --- In simple terms, retail investors' prediction models have failed, and now institutional players are the main actors. --- Losing 6 points last year, so what? Compared to being completely wiped out, that's nothing. --- The cycle theory should retire. Now it's a multi-factor game; there's no way to dominate everything with a single line. --- I just want to know how long this breaking point will last, or if another scam is coming... --- So, the era of making fortunes based on historical patterns is over. It's tough now.

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