Looking at the market trends of the 1970s makes it clear. Strategic resources like gold and silver were also driven up by the "chip revolution and space program" concepts at that time. Sounds reasonable, right? Industry upgrades, increased demand, rising prices. The logic seems perfect.

But what would it have been like if you had bought at the peak in 1980? The next 20 years—what would that experience be? Watching humanity enter the computer age and the internet explosion, while precious metal prices plummeted. That’s unscientific.

Where is the problem? The control over prices has never been in the hands of "buyer demand." The real driver is **fear**.

AI, technology—these are slow variables. The fundamentals do support them, but don’t expect them to trigger short-term market movements. On the contrary, geopolitical situations and major power relations are fast variables. When the US and USSR were in the Cold War, or now with tense US-China relations, governments will hoard resources at any cost, creating artificial shortages. The market senses this, and precious metals are snapped up in a frenzy.

This logic has a key use: **It gives you a clear exit signal**.

If you are trading these assets (whether physical or RWA tokenized products), don’t focus on corporate earnings or industry data—that’s a waste of effort. What you really need to pay attention to are those symbolic political moments—like the handshake between Reagan and Gorbachev. Once major powers start to reconcile and strategic reserves are gradually released, no matter how fast AI technology develops, the prices inflated by "geopolitical dividends" will collapse instantly.

This is the most common pitfall in RWA trading: mistaking short-term emotions for long-term trends.