The four-year cycle rule of Bitcoin once regarded as a guiding principle has truly failed this time.

Looking back at the past 14 years of market trends, each halving has been like a starting gun for the market—supply pressure releases, retail enthusiasm ignites, and the price usually experiences a vigorous rally. The logic is simple: reduced supply + speculative frenzy = upward trend.

But this cycle is different. Not only did the second year after the halving not follow the traditional script, it ended with a decline. This exception is highly significant—it signals the complete end of an old era.

Where is the real change? The "remote control" of Bitcoin's market has been completely handed over. The once crucial supply-side logic now has minimal influence. Today, what dominates the price are liquidity conditions, interest rate fluctuations, institutional fund flows, and the ups and downs of the macroeconomic cycle. The halving variable has become just background noise.

What does this reflect? Bitcoin is undergoing a transformation from a purely speculative asset to a mature financial asset. As institutional inflows continue and macroeconomic influences deepen, the entire cryptocurrency market is bidding farewell to the era of retail-led, wild growth, gradually integrating into the macroeconomic cycle framework.

This is both a sign of market maturity and a complete rewriting of the rules of the game.