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๐ Macro Watch: BOJ, Yen Liquidity & Crypto Risk
JPMorgan expects the Bank of Japan to hike rates twice in 2025, with policy rates potentially reaching 1.25% by end-2026. If this plays out, it could mark a meaningful shift after years of ultra-loose Japanese monetary policy.
๐น Why the yen matters:
The yen has long funded global risk-taking through the yen carry trade. Rising BOJ rates could tighten yen liquidity and reduce leverage flowing into risk assets.
๐น Carry trade unwind risk:
If Japanese yields rise and the yen strengthens, leveraged positions funded in yen may unwind. Historically, this has pressured equities and other risk assets during short-term adjustment phases.
๐น Implications for crypto:
Bitcoin and crypto markets could see:
Short-term volatility from global de-risking
Tighter liquidity impacting speculative flows
Increased sensitivity to macro shifts rather than narratives
๐ก Big picture:
While a yen-driven liquidity shift may create near-term headwinds, BTC continues to behave as a global liquidity barometer. Structural adoption and long-term fundamentals remain separate from short-term macro cycles.
๐ Do you think a yen carry trade unwind is back in play?
And how could this reshape crypto risk allocation in 2025โ2026?
Share your views ๐
โ#Macro #BOJ #Gateio #GateSquare #BOJRateHikesBackontheTable