The 2026 Crypto Market Shift: From Narrative-Driven to Structure-Driven

【CoinDesk】A leading compliance platform research team recently released an outlook stating that the game rules of the crypto market will change in 2026. David Duong and Colin Basco pointed out in their latest research that the old cycle model driven by retail speculation, token issuance, and single protocols is becoming ineffective. The core shift is clear: the market is no longer dictated by narratives, but depends on whether key market structures can continue to expand under stricter conditions.

Derivatives have become the main players in price discovery. Data shows that derivatives trading volume has already dominated most leading exchanges. Although there was a deleveraging adjustment at the end of 2025, it’s not because demand has disappeared, but because the market is undergoing a structural reset. Stricter margin requirements and risk control measures have significantly enhanced the market’s resilience, which is a healthy signal.

The prediction market is also transforming. From niche experimental products to genuine financial infrastructure, trading volume and liquidity continue to rise, attracting more and more participants from outside the crypto space. Stablecoins and payment applications are the most solid. Settlement, cross-border transfers, and liquidity management—these practical needs have driven the growth of stablecoins, which are now gradually integrating with automated trading and AI applications.

So the significance of 2026 lies here: to test whether these core market structures can still thrive under high-intensity regulation and risk constraints. Market structures, derivatives, prediction markets, and stablecoin applications—these are the real factors that determine the cycle.