#Polymarket预测市场 Seeing the moves of Phantom and Coinbase in the prediction market, there's a sense of déjà vu. It reminds me of the DeFi wave in 2019—every project wanted a piece of the pie, but most vanished during the bear market.

Polymarket's success was no accident. It identified a real demand during the 2020 US election, with trading volume once surpassing billions. But now—policy pressure, liquidity issues, and a ceiling on user base—these are unavoidable realities. The current strategies of Phantom and Coinbase essentially repeat the same story: big platforms jump in when there's hype, but often lack the native community stickiness that Polymarket had.

The difference lies in the context of the times. The crypto market in 2024 is no longer a niche hobby from 2020. Institutional funds are flowing in, and regulators are paying close attention. Coinbase even emphasized internally developing tokenized stocks, reflecting considerations of compliance and risk management—this is indeed more mature than earlier projects.

But I have to be honest, the cycle of prediction markets has always been like this: revolutionary ideas first, then capital flooding in, and only a few survive in the end. The key isn't how many big players participate, but whether they can find a balance among liquidity, user experience, and regulation. This is just the beginning of the test.