#Polymarket预测市场 Looking at the data from this AI prediction market on Kalshi, I have to say it's quite interesting. Gemini surged from 30% at the beginning of the year to 86%, while ChatGPT dropped from 41% to 8%—this reflects real differences in model performance and a dramatic reversal in market sentiment.

A trading volume of $14 million indicates that participants are serious and not just playing around. The key point is that the LM Arena leaderboard data used as the settlement basis means that ultimately, actual performance will speak for itself. This structure makes the signals from the prediction market relatively credible.

From a follow-the-leader perspective, these types of prediction markets are actually a window into observing the "smart money" movements. Large capital flows often reflect some early information or in-depth judgments. Gemini's turnaround may be driven by recent substantial progress Google has made in model iteration, rather than just marketing noise.

Some traders prefer to position themselves in these long-term prediction markets; winning probability isn't the main focus, but rather the odds. If you want to follow traders with this mindset, you need to understand their time horizon and risk tolerance—this is a completely different world from short-term chasing gains and cutting losses. Prediction markets have high return certainty, but require strong psychological patience.

It seems worthwhile to keep an eye on the subsequent capital flow in this market.