Recently, Bitcoin's price movement has indeed made many people restless. The Q4 decline reached 22.8%, dropping from $85,000, and many inquiries have come in asking whether there will be a rebound after the holiday. Honestly, short-term ups and downs are hard to predict, but if you can understand the underlying logic behind Bitcoin price fluctuations, you can make more rational judgments. Today, let's analyze five key factors to see whether the opportunities after the holiday are worth paying attention to.

First, we need to talk about market liquidity — this is the most critical variable right now. Many people tend to simplify Bitcoin's price movements as a "faith" issue, but in reality, liquidity is the true "hidden driver." During the Christmas holiday, global financial markets are closed, and capital activity drops sharply. In such an environment, even limited selling pressure can easily push prices down; similarly, small buy orders can quickly push prices up. Based on data from the past five years, Bitcoin's volatility before and after Christmas is usually about 30% higher than normal, mainly due to severe liquidity contraction. This is also an important reference for judging whether a short-term rebound might occur after the holiday: in a market with liquidity drying up, large funds are more likely to move prices.

The second factor to focus on is options play in the derivatives market. This area is relatively professional, but understanding it thoroughly can help predict market direction in advance. Currently, major institutional players hold about $300 million in gamma risk exposure, which directly keeps Bitcoin's price firmly anchored between $85,000 and $90,000. When the options contracts expire on December 26, this "shackle" will be released, potentially giving the price new room for movement.