The crypto world has never lacked opportunities; what’s truly rare is surviving them.

This week, Bitcoin’s price action was nothing short of dramatic, dropping directly from $126,000 to below $90,000, a 30% decline. Watching the charts turn green, newcomers were already terrified out of their minds. But honestly, I think this is actually a good window for positioning.

As early as Monday, I opened a short position around $116,000. By Tuesday, at $115,500, I added another. The entire decline was steady and orderly. However, I’m not a prophet—yesterday, I got caught by a short-term rebound that lured many into a trap. I tried going long, then quickly cut my losses and exited. That loss turned out to be my best lesson—when the big trend is clear, don’t get shaken by short-term volatility.

**What’s really behind this plunge?**

Many people see a red candlestick chart and shout “crash,” but my judgment is different. A 30% correction in Bitcoin’s bull market history is actually quite normal. Just look at the data, and you’ll see similar moves happen once every few years.

To truly understand this drop, we need to look at what’s happening with global liquidity. The Bank of Japan has been raising interest rates, which directly killed off the once most profitable yen arbitrage trades. We must understand that those players borrowing in low-yen and investing in risk assets, once rates rise, have to close their positions and run. As a result, trillions of dollars are being pulled out of stocks, cryptocurrencies, and other risk assets.

On the other side, although the Federal Reserve paused quantitative tightening early, signaling a possible easing, the market interpreted this as a warning that “the economy might be headed for trouble.” So, ultimately, it’s just that the available money in the market isn’t as abundant as before. Bitcoin, as the most liquid risk asset, naturally becomes the first to be sold off. This isn’t a problem with Bitcoin itself; it’s simply a cyclical adjustment in global capital allocation.

**Where is it headed next?**

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has broken below the 50-week moving average. How important is this line? It basically marks the boundary of the medium-term trend. Falling below it indicates that the technical picture in the short term is somewhat grim, but it also signals a key support level I’m watching closely.

Traders need to learn to live in two worlds: one of technical charts, and one of fundamental logic. Focusing only on charts can scare you out of positions; focusing only on fundamentals can trap you. The real opportunity lies at the intersection of these two worlds. Currently, I’m waiting for further confirmation signals before making my next move.

The market’s cruelest aspect is that it repeatedly tests your confidence in your trading system. Every plunge questions: Do you really believe in your analysis? Or are you just screaming along with the crowd? To survive, you must have your own logic and execute it relentlessly.