Recently, ETH's price movement has provided us with an interesting perspective. After reaching a high at 2994, the price turned downward, just a hair away from the expected 3050 short position. What underlying logic is behind this market behavior?

From a technical standpoint, there are two more likely development paths:

**First Scenario**: ETH will experience another sharp decline, followed by a minor oversold indicator correction, entering a recovery phase. This correction won't directly push prices higher but will involve a period of consolidation before a rebound. The rebound peak is most likely to complete a false breakout in the 2960-2980 range, then continue downward.

**Second Scenario**: Skip the rebound and directly replace it with sideways consolidation; after indicator correction, the price will still move downward.

Both scenarios point to the same conclusion—the overall trend remains a oscillating downward movement. In the short term, avoid rushing to go long, as it’s easy to get caught at high levels.

Where is the real opportunity? It’s when the price rebounds to the 2960-2980 zone, then use a short position at high levels to catch the move. The risk-reward ratio will be quite favorable. Probabilistically, the first scenario has a higher likelihood—initially creating a false breakout to lure in buyers, then accelerating the sell-off, which is a common market tactic.