I've always been curious about this—given how hot the Solana ecosystem is, why hasn't a truly reliable prediction market emerged yet?

Currently, the main options are: Jupiter Predict (an on-chain version linked with Kalshi), PMX Trade supported by AllianceDAO, and Melee which has raised $3.5 million. But honestly, the popularity of these platforms isn't high; their daily trading volume is just over $10,000 to $20,000, and in total, they can't even match Polymarket's daily turnover.

The reasons behind this need to be carefully analyzed. One possibility is that the Solana community's attention is still caught up in the Meme coin frenzy, with focus too scattered; another perspective is that perhaps the Solana Foundation is indeed busy with projects like DAT, and doesn't prioritize prediction markets enough.

But from a different angle, the activity on the Solana chain is quite good, with a solid user base, and no strong competitors dominating the prediction market space. Logically, it would be a good opportunity for established players like Kalshi to bring their platform on-chain. However, recently there seems to be little movement—checked the official tweets, the last mention of "prediction" was on November 6, and "kalshi" has only been mentioned twice in the past few months. Whether it's due to technical adaptation difficulties or other variables, it's still hard to say at this point.