The US Congress budget negotiations have reached a deadlock. According to the latest news, the government is very likely to face a new shutdown by January 31.

It may seem like political news, but in fact, this is a market signal that every holder needs to take seriously.

Historical patterns tell us that whenever there is uncertainty in traditional finance and political systems, institutions and smart money will start reallocating assets—cryptocurrencies, due to their independent nature, often become an important vessel for this wave of safe-haven capital. Bitcoin, as digital gold, always attracts incremental funds during macro risk releases.

In the context of the 2026 market structure divergence, this government shutdown event could serve as a trigger to accelerate the divergence: on one hand, core assets like Bitcoin will continue to absorb institutional and safe-haven funds; on the other hand, project tokens lacking fundamental support and relying solely on hype and leverage will face stronger selling pressure.

What should retail investors do?

**First, decisively adjust your position structure.** Significantly reduce holdings in altcoins, especially those without practical use cases and purely packaged with concepts. These assets are often the first to be affected when market sentiment shifts.

**Second, increase allocation to assets with strong safe-haven attributes.** Keep a sufficient proportion of Bitcoin or leading mainstream coins. These assets have stronger risk resistance and are the preferred allocation during macro risks.

**Third, adjust trading rhythm.** Reduce frequent operations, observe on-chain data and capital flows more carefully, and wait until market sentiment is fully released and panic is fully digested before making moves. Hasty decisions often lead to losses amid volatility.

Events like government shutdown are never just simple news stories. They change liquidity, risk appetite, and capital flows. Whether one can accurately grasp these turning points often determines the difference in returns within a cycle.

The coming weeks are worth close monitoring: changes in macro expectations, movements of large on-chain holders, and the relative strength of various assets. These details will tell us when the market’s safe-haven sentiment truly materializes.