#比特币价格分析 Seeing the data from Polymarket, a familiar feeling arose in my mind. With a 25% probability, there's actually an interesting cyclical story behind this number.

I still remember the end of 2017, when everyone was shouting that $100,000 was not a dream. At that time, the enthusiasm far exceeded today’s, and the optimistic sentiment on prediction sites was almost overwhelming. But history tends to repeat similar scripts—when everyone is optimistic about the same price, the market often gives a completely different answer. Looking at this 25% probability now, it somewhat reflects the gradual cooling of market sentiment.

From the high of $69,000 in 2021 to today, every price fluctuation has been teaching people what caution really means. The goal of reaching $100,000 again within the year is much more difficult than expected, both technically and in terms of market sentiment. Even more sobering is the 4% prediction of $110,000—that's no longer wishful thinking, but an expression of a very low probability event. In contrast, the 22% chance of dropping below $80,000 carries a heavy sense of reality.

What truly warrants reflection is not these percentage figures themselves, but the market consensus shift they reflect. The once boundless optimism is transforming into rational scrutiny. This change in mindset often signals the beginning of a major cycle adjustment. Those who have experienced several bull and bear cycles should understand—when most people start to doubt, both opportunities and risks are present.