#美联储回购协议计划 $BTC Technical Analysis:

Looking at the chart, the current market movement has a limited amplitude, and the key lies in the struggle at several levels. The upper level 87773 is the breakout neckline; only if it is broken through can we look towards 88286 (which is also the upper edge of the flag pattern). If we can hold above 88286 steadily, the next target is the 1:1 level. Whether we can continue to push towards 1.618 depends on whether the 1:1 level can truly stabilize. If even the 1:1 level cannot be held, then higher targets are out of reach.

Conversely, if $BTC rebounds insufficiently and fails to hold above 87773, the probability of falling back to 86682 will significantly increase. This level has been tested too frequently, and even strong support cannot withstand such repeated testing and consumption.

Looking below, 87231 is another neckline in the current consolidation zone (marked by the white arrow). Once broken, it will test 86682. With difficulty in rising and also in falling, the market is essentially fluctuating between 87773 and 86682.

Trading strategy overview:
- Breakthrough with volume at 87676, go long on the right side, set stop-loss properly
- If volume breaks below 87262 and cannot recover on a rebound, go short on the right side, also with proper stop-loss
- Hourly breakout above 87773 is valid, targeting the 88286-89241 range
- If the 4-hour level breaks below 86964, look down to 86346-85316

Deeper issue lies in the performance of the 4-hour moving averages. EMA20 and the 50-day moving average are unable to hold their ground; they get knocked down shortly after stabilizing. The upper side is pressured by institutional sell-offs, while the lower side is protected by large traders, leaving retail traders caught in the middle with little room for action.

The key defensive line: as long as the 4-hour candle closes above 86630, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. If it truly breaks below 86630, then caution is needed around 84393 (indicated by the yellow arrow). When reaching 84393, carefully distinguish whether it is a genuine breakdown or a false breakout with a wick. If it’s a false breakout that quickly recovers, this presents an excellent long opportunity, and left-side betting is worth paying attention to. Monitoring volume changes closely can better confirm the trend.