#Polymarket预测市场 Seeing Gemini jump from 30% at the beginning of the year to 86% now reminds me of a common phenomenon in investing—the rapid reversal of market sentiment.

This prediction market is very interesting; the $14.08 million trading volume reflects the market’s true view of the AI competition landscape. But it also reminds us of an important point: a high probability in a prediction market does not equal certainty. Data speaks, but whether the assumptions behind the data can continue to hold is the key.

I’ve always believed that whether it’s prediction markets or asset allocation, the core logic is the same—don’t be fooled by current consensus. At the start of the year, ChatGPT had a 41% chance of winning; now it’s down to 8%. What does this sharp fluctuation indicate? It shows that the market’s focus is shifting rapidly, but we need to ask why the shift is happening and how long this trend can last.

If you’re interested in prediction markets, my advice is: treat them as a window to observe market sentiment, not as a certainty gamble. Always leave room for counter-outcomes, and don’t put all your chips on the highest probability option. In the long run, positions that can adapt to change tend to be more stable than those that bet on a single direction.