#Polymarket预测市场 The probability of BTC breaking $100,000 within the year on Polymarket has already dropped to 25%, which is a noteworthy signal.

Let's break down the current market expectations: breaking $100,000 → 25%, breaking $110,000 → 4%, dropping below $80,000 → 22%. The probability distribution is clearly being revised downward, indicating that market confidence in Bitcoin's rally in Q4 is waning. What does this reflect? First, spot and derivatives prices have tested the $100,000 threshold multiple times but failed to break through; second, liquidity tends to tighten towards the end of the year; third, macroeconomic uncertainties still persist.

Interestingly, the probability of dropping below $80,000 (22%) is relatively high, suggesting that the market is pricing in increased downside risk. From a capital flow perspective, if large outflows accelerate, this probability could continue to rise.

Key areas to monitor recently include: whale wallet movements, exchange inflow and outflow data, and changes in implied volatility in the options market. These on-chain signals often reflect real capital sentiment earlier than market prediction probabilities.