#数字资产市场动态 The US Fiscal Uncertainty Rises Again, Crypto Market Approaches a Repricing Critical Point

Breaking news—US congressional budget negotiations have stalled, significantly increasing the risk of a government shutdown on January 31. This is not just political news from Washington; it will directly impact the pricing logic of the crypto market.

Why do I say that? A review of history makes it clear. Whenever macroeconomic uncertainty spikes or unexpected variables appear in the traditional financial system, those with keen senses usually initiate risk rebalancing—shifting towards assets that are more independent and naturally immune to policy fluctuations. Cryptocurrencies, as a value transfer medium across borders, possess exactly this kind of appeal.

How will this unfold specifically? Considering the current market structure: on one hand, leading assets like $BTC and $ETH will become safe-haven funds' gathering spots because they have deep liquidity, strong consensus, and outstanding risk resistance; on the other hand, smaller coins lacking real-world applications and maintained solely by hype will face accelerated liquidation—when funds start to select specific sectors, their speculative nature makes it hard to sustain valuations.

How should retail investors respond? Here are some practical suggestions:

**First, decisively reduce exposure to high-risk assets.** Especially projects with opaque teams and hollow ecosystems. Not cutting now might lead to more painful losses when market sentiment fully releases. Instead of chasing highs and defending, it’s better to proactively cut positions.

**Second, establish hedging allocations.** Keep a certain proportion of your total investment in Bitcoin or major mainstream coins as a "safe haven." When political uncertainty rises, these tend to perform most stably.

**Third, monitor on-chain data and track smart money movements.** Large transfers, wallet concentration changes, inflows and outflows on exchanges—these can reflect real fund sentiment. Don’t be swayed by short-term volatile candlesticks; learn to interpret market sentiment from on-chain signals.

**Fourth, stay patient and wait for sentiment to fully release.** The impact of political events usually occurs in waves: first panic selling, then quiet accumulation by smart money, and finally a reverse rally. Those who jump in during the first wave often get shaken out.

Market opportunities are never scarce; what is scarce is the ability to remain calm and make rational judgments amid uncertainty. When everyone is panicking over news, those who can calmly analyze market logic often catch the rhythm. This US political suspense is no exception—today’s risk could very well be tomorrow’s opportunity.