#Polymarket预测市场 The data from prediction markets doesn't lie. Gemini soared from 30% at the beginning of the year to 86%, supported by real interaction volume—$14.08 million in trading volume is right there.

Here's the key information: this AI large model prediction battle is actually an arbitrage opportunity. Market consensus is rapidly adjusting, indicating that many participants are re-evaluating based on new data. ChatGPT dropped from 41% to 8%, Grok rose from 14% to 6%, and every percentage point change behind these shifts represents a trading opportunity.

Want to participate in this kind of prediction market trading? First, understand the logic: prediction markets are most attractive because of their transparency and liquidity. Once market consensus is formed, the scope for further interaction diminishes. So if you want to participate, either get in when the consensus is just beginning to form or wait for a reversal signal.

Practical advice: pay attention to the trends on the LM Arena leaderboard, as this is the basis for Kalshi's settlement. If you see Gemini's performance significantly decline in actual evaluations, that’s a good opportunity to short. Don’t be fooled by short-term probability fluctuations; focus on the logic behind the data. Use minimal capital to participate in highly interactive markets—that’s the correct approach.