#比特币价格分析 Looking at the latest data from Polymarket, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 again this year has dropped to 25%, which is a signal worth paying attention to.

In comparison, the probability of reaching $110,000 is even lower at 4%, while the chance of falling below $80,000 is actually at 22%, indicating that market expectations for the subsequent trend are turning more cautious. What does this inverted probability reflect? Mainly the current on-chain fund flows and institutional holding sentiment.

From a technical perspective, the end of the year is usually a period of liquidity contraction, and signals of large whales fleeing will be amplified. Recently, I’ve been tracking the wallet movements of several major players and have indeed found signs of partial liquidation. This aligns with Polymarket’s adjusted expectations — the market is shifting from optimistic to neutral or slightly bearish.

If I had to give a judgment: a 25% probability may seem low, but let’s not forget that this is the pricing of a low-probability event. The key is to monitor whether the $80,000 support level can hold. Once broken, it could trigger more stop-losses and panic selling, which might lead to data adjustments again.

Continuing to watch on-chain data, if large holders keep net outflows to exchanges, this probability will decrease further.