2025-12-27 09:00:25

#比特币与黄金战争 Why hasn't Bitcoin outperformed gold and US stocks? The changing capital logic behind it

Recently, the market has shown an interesting contrast: gold and US stocks have been soaring, while Bitcoin has little presence. This somewhat clashes with many people's dream of "digital gold." The data for 2025 tells the story—gold has risen nearly 70%, while Bitcoin has fallen from its early-year high by almost 30%, even turning negative for the year with a decline of over 6%.

Analyst Benjamin Cowen offers an perspective: the issue isn't Bitcoin itself, but that the "money" driving different assets has changed its mindset.

**The Gap Between Expected Trading and Actual Demand**

Cowen's observation is straightforward: what are stocks and gold rising on? The market is betting that "the Federal Reserve will cut rates and flood the market" after its meetings. But the price of $BTC isn't driven by that—it's about "liquidity really pouring in." In other words, the market is trading on a bright future, but Bitcoin needs to see real money coming now. As the Fed repeatedly delays rate cuts, Bitcoin's momentum naturally wanes.

**Two Key Insights**

First, macro headwinds may not dissipate so quickly. Cowen believes that the hurdle of high interest rates could continue to suppress the entire crypto market until 2026. Those who are betting solely on a "macro bull market" should prepare for a long-term battle.

Second, the trend is shifting. While everyone is still waiting for a "liquidity signal," the market is starting to scrutinize whether various projects have real capabilities. Stories sustained only by liquidity will fade, and projects that can truly deliver and solve problems will emerge.

Ultimately, the labels of assets may change, but capital flows won't lie—they always move toward the most widely accepted value at the moment. When the market revalues various assets, those genuinely engaged in product development, infrastructure, and creating real social utility may last the longest.

BTC0,28%

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VitaliksTwin

· 19h ago

Gold has risen 70%, BTC down 6%... The gap is really huge, and it's still called "digital gold." The Federal Reserve keeps backing down, no wonder the crypto circle is so sluggish. Expected trading vs. actual demand, no problem with the explanation. High interest rates will last until 2026? That's a long wait... Projects without real value probably won't survive until then. Let's see when liquidity actually arrives; right now, it's all about who can hold on. Projects that truly get things done will indeed last longer, but in this environment, who still has the energy to do that... Better to survive first. Instead of betting on macro trends, it's better to pick those that don't rely on stories to survive. Wait, does this logic mean that Bitcoin is fine in the long run, but in the short term, it needs to withstand the pressure?

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GateUser-74b10196

· 19h ago

The Federal Reserve keeps chickening out, and the crypto circle is being suffocated to death haha

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ShamedApeSeller

· 19h ago

Here comes the story of gold and US stocks again? Honestly, it's just that liquidity hasn't arrived, and BTC can only wait idly. --- I just want to ask, how will we get through this until 2026? Is it really all-in on those "real projects"? --- Expected trading vs. actual demand, sounds right, but at the end of the day, it's just that there's no money to throw in, nothing new. --- Heard a lot about those "truly capable projects," but what’s the result? Every time the trend shifts, I miss the boat. --- So ultimately, we still have to wait for the Federal Reserve? Feels like waiting until the Year of the Monkey and the Horse. --- Gold up 70%, BTC down 6%... this comparison really hits hard, but I just want to see if there’s a rebound by the end of the year. --- "Capital flow won't deceive"—the problem is, ordinary people like us simply can't see clearly where the money is flowing.

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SerumSurfer

· 19h ago

Wake up, everyone is waiting for the liquidity injection. Bitcoin has already run out of patience.

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MetaEggplant

· 19h ago

Wait a minute, the Federal Reserve hasn't cut interest rates, so what are BTC holders waiting for... This logic is indeed a bit heartbreaking. --- Gold has risen 70%, and I haven't even bottomed out yet. It's really time to reflect on my trading strategy. --- So ultimately, it's still a game of liquidity. Without real money pouring in, everything is just talk on paper. --- Still need to suppress in 2026? Then I need to replan my positions... --- That makes sense. Projects that only tell stories should really cool off. --- Looks like I need to shift from macro gambling to finding truly product-driven assets. The difficulty just increased. --- If BTC's momentum wanes, so be it. Anyway, I remain optimistic in the long term, no rush. --- Fund flow will never deceive. This phrase hits the nail on the head.

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