I have completely liquidated all my positions in Monad, incurring a total loss of over $100,000, but I don't feel sad. More than that, I am reflecting on the future of the public chain ecosystem through these losses. My previous attempt to go long on Linea also ended in failure, and this time betting on Monad also appears “doubtful in prospects.”

It must be admitted that the current market game has essentially evolved into a capital game: projects with capital advantages manipulate market making, inflate prices to trigger short squeezes, or harvest liquidity through extreme fee rates.

People are no longer obsessed with ideals and long-term visions. Short-term trading is driven solely by emotions, and fundamental analysis and so-called profit models (PE) have been cast aside.

The future is too distant, and the final battle of the public chain ecosystem ultimately depends on infrastructure and user scale. It’s like building a city: Are there pioneers coming to cultivate the land? Are there technical talents and enterprises settling in? Does the city itself have abundant natural resources? Do government policies provide strong support and subsidies?

For example, are natural resources abundant—fertile land (high performance), accessible water sources (low cost), well-connected transportation (good compatibility)?

And will the “city lord” (public chain foundation and investors) be willing to spend a fortune and support long-term development, building roads and bridges, and providing generous subsidies?

Throughout history, cities have often surpassed others, dynasties have replaced each other—how rare is that?

During the Tang Dynasty’s prosperity, Chang’an was lit with countless lanterns; during the Song Dynasty, Bianjing was a gathering of merchants; Yuan, Ming, and Qing dynasties each led the trend, yet no dynasty is eternal.

Technology is like a spring tide; culture is like a great river. The power structure that controls production materials and absolute capital is constantly changing.

Historically, there are countless cases of cities surpassing others, and later dynasties replacing previous ones—nothing remains unchanged. The Tang, Song, Yuan, Ming, and Qing each had their own themes and characteristics. With technological progress and cultural evolution, the social structure that controls production materials and absolute capital is also in flux.

Truly rapidly developing cities often possess advantages such as high-tech talent clusters, massive government subsidies, rich natural resources, international perspectives, port proximity, and other favorable conditions, along with well-developed infrastructure in education, healthcare, entertainment, real estate, tourism, and a stable resident population.

Take Shenzhen, for example. It benefited from the wind of reform and opening-up (timing), is adjacent to Hong Kong’s port (geography), attracting talents from all over the world and receiving huge policy dividends (people), transforming from a fishing village into an international metropolis in just forty years.

Silicon Valley, named because silicon was the core material for manufacturing transistors and integrated circuits at the time. “Silicon” refers to the high-tech industry. “Valley” points to the Santa Clara Valley in the southern San Francisco Bay Area of California, which is indeed a valley geographically. In the mid-20th century, this region gathered numerous semiconductor, chip, and electronics companies—Silicon Valley—attracting top talent. With continuous support from venture capital, infrastructure in education, healthcare, entertainment, and real estate was constantly improved, making it a global innovation hub. The term “Silicon Valley” has become a symbol of high technology and innovation, a hub for entrepreneurial culture and venture capital, and a gathering place for global tech companies and talent.

Public chains are similar.
A prosperous on-chain city requires DeFi as its financial lifeblood, DEX as its marketplace, Launchpad as its startup incubator, Meme as its street fireworks, prediction markets as its gambling teahouse, gaming and social platforms as its vibrant nightlife...

All are indispensable. Only then can the ecosystem spin in a self-sustaining cycle, retain residents, attract visitors, and generate genuine vitality.

Recently, debates over Solana and BSC have been intense. I believe, fundamentally, it’s like the difference in “play order” in city planning theories:

When your opponent has no cards left to play, and you still have unlimited options, the outcome is obvious.

Power, resources, money, people, natural conditions, international status—these decisive factors are in front of us, and the answer is quite simple.

Therefore, beyond short-term pump-and-dump tokens, if you want to build an excellent public chain, what you need most are timing, geography, and human harmony. A solid foundation and gradual accumulation are the true answers for a public chain.

No isolated city can stand proud for a thousand years without decline; the laggards will eventually be shattered by the tide of history.