2025-12-27 08:31:04

#数字资产市场动态 In Q4 2025, Bitcoin experienced a rollercoaster market. It surged to $126,000 at the beginning of the year, setting a new all-time high, and many cheered this as a proof of the "Golden Autumn Market." However, on October 10th, the market suddenly reversed—over $19 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated, causing Bitcoin to plummet from its high, with a nearly 30% decline, and it is now struggling to stay above $90,000.

There are two opposing voices in the market. One group of analysts believes that this decline is not the end but the beginning. According to Bitcoin's historical cycle pattern—roughly 364 days for a complete adjustment cycle—the potential bottom may not appear until October 2026, when the price could dip to around $37,500. Sounds a bit pessimistic? But this logic is based on historical data.

The other perspective is more optimistic. They point out that with traditional institutions flooding in and countries adopting more friendly policies, Bitcoin's operational rules may have quietly changed. The strict four-year cycle might already be a thing of the past, and future trends are unpredictable.

Who is right? It remains unknown for now. The market's uncertainty is precisely what traders need to stay vigilant about.

BTC0,44%

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JustAnotherWallet

· 12h ago

The 364-day cycle theory... sounds just like astrology, do you really treat history as an ironclad rule? Institutional entry has indeed changed the game, but who dares to bet that 3.75 million by 2026 is guaranteed? I still think this liquidation is just a appetizer.

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NotFinancialAdviser

· 12-27 08:59

$19 billion evaporated overnight. This is the power of leverage, brothers.

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blocksnark

· 12-27 08:58

The 364-day cycle theory sounds quite scientific, but I think the game has already changed with institutional entry. Who still strictly follows the old rules? Hitting 37,500 is probably just a scare tactic; the bottom might not be that low. 190 billion in liquidation in an instant—that's the fate of leverage. Honestly, no one really knows who's right, so just hold some spot assets and sleep peacefully. From 126,000 all the way down to 90,000, it shows that the retail investors haven't given up at all.

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BagHolderTillRetire

· 12-27 08:58

I don't believe in the 364-day cycle. Historical data also depends on the era's context. Now that institutions are entering, the rules have already changed.

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CryptoComedian

· 12-27 08:57

Laughing and then crying, the $19 billion leverage experienced what "free fall" really means on October 10th. --- 37,500 or continue to buy the dip? Honestly, both predictions are pretty far-fetched. I'll just quietly watch the data speak. --- Autumn market? Bro, are you writing a novel? Now all that's missing is an extra chapter at the bottom. --- 364-day cycle vs. rule rewriting, these two arguments are like betting on a game of chess to see who guesses right. Anyway, I can't afford to bet. --- The $90,000 struggling to support itself looks just like my paycheck card struggling to support my spending habits (dog head escape). --- Traditional institutions pouring in with friendly policies sounds great, but my principal prefers a clear stop-loss line. --- No one’s predictions are right; the market itself doesn’t know what tomorrow will bring. Let’s just watch it as a suspense drama.

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