I just reviewed a macro model analysis based on on-chain data, and the results are somewhat counterintuitive.

On the surface, it seems that historical patterns have already set the stage: Bitcoin dropped 73% in 2018, and another 64% in 2022. Following the common four-year cycle logic, 2026 appears to be destined for a deep bear market, with Bitcoin possibly retracing to the 40,000-50,000 range, and altcoins potentially facing bloodbaths.

But here’s the issue — the on-chain institutional fund footprints tell us that this time, real change is happening.

**First Variable: Institutional Defense Lines Are Already Laid Out**

Pension funds and sovereign wealth funds aren’t trading cryptocurrencies; they’re doing asset allocation. The regular buying by these institutions has already built a safety net below Bitcoin. Will the sudden crash of 2022 happen again? The probability is rapidly decreasing. Even if there’s a correction, it’s unlikely to be a bottomless plunge.

**Second Variable: Fiat Currency Is Devaluing Itself**

By 2026, the US debt interest payments will surpass military expenditures. What does this mean? Central banks around the world have stopped printing money. As the world fights inflation, Bitcoin, as "digital gold," has shifted from an optional asset to a standard one — this is the big trend.

**Third Variable: Application Layer Is Truly Taking Off**

By 2026, blockchain won’t just be about trading speculation. Infrastructure like oracles is becoming a bridge connecting real-world assets and on-chain liquidity. Once traditional assets like real estate and government bonds can generate yields on-chain through trusted data, the inflow of capital will be at a traditional financial scale — not billions, but trillions.

So the real question isn’t whether prices will fall, but how deep the decline will be and how the transmission mechanism has already changed completely compared to previous cycles.