ETH has risen from the recent low of 2623.57 to 3447.44, and this rally has been largely understood. Now it has reached a critical crossroads. When I previously mentioned the Bitcoin trend of a major exchange, I said that ETH and BTC move in sync, and those who follow closely know this well. The most likely scenario now is sideways consolidation, and after the correction ends, a new direction will be determined. How to navigate this round of market?

Currently, ETH faces two possible paths:

**First Path (Bullish Consolidation)**

ETH continues to fluctuate sideways and converge at the current position. During this correction, the daily candlestick must stay above 2888.7, gradually compressing into a narrower range. Suddenly, one day, it breaks upward, initiating a new rally. Based on timing, there’s a chance in mid to late January to push through or even surpass the previous high of 3447.44.

**Second Path (Further Decline)**

The move from 2775.19 is just a rebound from the previous large decline zone. After the rebound, it will continue downward, oscillating for a few more days before finding a true bottom support, then starting a new upward cycle.

The key difference between these two paths lies here: choosing the first path means a very short correction period, and entering at the wrong time could easily miss the entire market; choosing the second path allows for a few more days of fluctuation, but once the bottom is confirmed, the subsequent upside potential is not bad either.

My approach is straightforward: currently, mainly observe. Look for 'pause signals' in smaller timeframes during minor corrections to try small positions long, with a stop loss if the daily candlestick closes below 2889, the current starting point of the rally. Don’t panic if stopped out; continue to look for the next entry opportunity. Small positions are a necessary trading cost for riding the big trend.

If the decline intensifies and 2889 cannot hold, and even 2780 is broken, then it’s highly likely to follow the second path. In that case, keep monitoring; as long as signs of a pause appear, I will still attempt to go long. Stop loss can be placed at the previous low of 2623.57. Once the market begins to move as expected, gradually move the stop loss up to the recent low, and finally above the cost basis.