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Is the Federal Reserve really cutting interest rates? Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi recently stated that multiple rate cuts could indeed occur in 2026, but there is a harsh truth behind this: it’s not a sign of a strong economy, but rather an indication that the economy has fallen into a fragile balance.

It sounds quite contradictory. The market is expecting the Fed to loosen monetary policy significantly, believing that rate cuts will trigger a bull market, but Zandi’s view completely reverses this logic. Why? The data is clear—growth momentum is lacking, hiring has stalled, and the unemployment rate is quietly rising. Just looking at November’s data is enough to be sobering: the US added only 64,000 jobs, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics directly said the net change was "very small." In other words, the employment market has already slowed down.

Even more concerning is that inflation has not been truly tamed. The CPI is still stuck at 2.7%, above the Fed’s target. This creates a dilemma: cutting rates might reignite inflation, while not cutting could lead to a hard landing for the economy.

Zandi’s view is very straightforward: "This is not a strong recovery, but fragile growth." Once there are any signs of a slowdown in consumption, a wave of unemployment could sweep in. Is a rate cut a rescue or a landmine? The suspense is intensifying.