#预测市场 Seeing the probability of Wosh's nomination in the prediction market jump from 7% directly to 38%, my first reaction is not excitement but caution. Such sharp fluctuations often hide the influence of big players.

Having experienced too many "black swans" and "gray rhinos," I have learned a painful lesson: although prediction markets seem democratic and transparent, limited liquidity and small sample sizes make them easily manipulated by large traders' emotions. What does the sudden surge in Wosh's probability indicate? It suggests that someone is heavily buying in, possibly just to create a false impression of "market consensus."

Even more painfully, once this kind of information spreads to the crypto market, it becomes a breeding ground for FOMO. How many people see this news and rush in, thinking they've found the next "certainty"? And what’s the result? 99% of them are just taking the fall for the big players.

The selection of the Federal Reserve Chair is indeed important, affecting future monetary policy directions, but true value investors won't let short-term probability data dictate their decisions. My advice is: it's okay to watch the news, but don’t let prediction market fluctuations lead you around by the nose. The secret to surviving on-chain is to always ask yourself—who benefits from this rise or fall?