#预测市场 It's that time of the year again for the intensive new token offerings. Looking at this week's project lineup—Tether's XPL, DWF's Falcon Finance, and Yield Basis, the new work by Curve founder—I suddenly recall the ICO frenzy of 2017. Back then, we were also rushing in one after another; some people made profits, while most got trapped.

This time is different; the market has finally learned to be smart. Looking at Upheaval's sales mechanism—from Bonding Curve to oversubscription allocation, and then to Limitless as a representative of prediction markets—there are institutional backings behind all of them—names like Coinbase Ventures, 1confirmation have become some form of credit guarantee. But this is also what I worry about most. When all the smart money rushes in the same direction, history tells us what might happen.

Yield Basis is particularly interesting. Egorov's name is a belief in the Curve community; a $50 million funding valuation expected to reach hundreds of millions of dollars FDV—I've seen this multiple before in early Uniswap projects. But what I want to ask is: with liquidity mining incentives accounting for 30% of the token allocation, how long can this economic model last?

The example of Goated hits even closer to home—GambleFi has already developed a cash flow model on Solana, which means it truly has the ability to generate revenue. But when a mature project is only now issuing tokens, how much room is there for valuation for later entrants? This is very similar to the token issuance logic of projects in the late stage of the 2020 DeFi Summer.

My feelings are very complex. Opportunities are indeed present, but the pace is faster than before, and the risks are more hidden. Those who didn't get whitelisted or missed snapshots often chase high in FOMO. And real profits usually belong only to those who have already positioned themselves early in the cycle. The new token offering feast this week appears prosperous on the surface, but in reality, it is already diverging.