#美联储回购协议计划 Why the Crypto World Can't Stay Calm as the US Government Shutdown Approaches

Last year's 43-day shutdown just ended, but trouble in Washington isn't over. With January 30th midnight approaching, the two parties are again at an impasse over healthcare subsidies—Democrats want to extend the subsidy program from the Obama era, while the Trump administration firmly opposes this expenditure. Budget negotiations before Christmas have already broken down, and Congress hasn't even agreed on a voting framework. Most government departments are now operating solely on temporary funding.

What does this situation mean for the crypto market?

According to Polymarket data, the market has already reacted with anxiety—the probability of a government shutdown is priced at 38%. During the last shutdown, BTC experienced a rally followed by volatility due to liquidity tightening, and this history may repeat itself. The key point is: once a shutdown occurs, investors tend to withdraw from risk assets, amplifying short-term volatility in $BTC and the entire crypto market; once an agreement is reached, liquidity returns, and a rebound opportunity emerges.

The medium-term risks are even more concerning. Reforms to market structure, new rounds of crypto ETF approvals—these regulatory developments that were progressing will all be frozen. Uncertainty itself will suppress risk appetite, coupled with delays in economic data releases, which will extend investors' decision-making processes. This is the real hidden danger.

Historical experience shows that the US government tends to wait until the brink before signing temporary agreements, kicking the problem to the next administration. But this time, both parties are very firm on healthcare subsidies, and a government shutdown is not out of the question. Once in a shutdown, volatility in sensitive tokens like $ETH and $SOL will also increase in tandem.

Opportunities often hide within volatility. Short-term liquidity crunches may cause declines, but in the long run, government shutdowns usually lead to temporary shocks. Historical data indicates that crypto markets tend to rebound after a shutdown ends. The key is not to be driven by panic emotions—choosing the right entry point is more important than chasing highs.

In this kind of market, staying clear-headed is more valuable than following the crowd. Watch the policy developments at the end of January and prepare to act when liquidity returns—that's the professional investor's approach.