Weekend market signals are stacking up, worth a careful review.

Let's start with these four core messages: The three major US stock indices slightly declined, Tesla fell over 2%, but the Chinese concept index rose against the trend by 0.72%. At the same time, there were obvious movements in commodities—silver futures surged over 10%, hitting a new all-time high and approaching the $80 mark; spot gold rose over 1.3% to reach $4,600; palladium skyrocketed 12%; and the main Shanghai copper contract also surpassed 100,000 yuan. Additionally, NVIDIA plans to deliver the H200 chip to China before the Spring Festival, with a performance boost of 6 times but a 30% increase in price. The exchanges announced a series of fee reduction and benefit measures for 2026.

What do these signals combined reflect? The super cycle of commodities is still unfolding, but the expectation of US dollar appreciation is reshaping market expectations.

The key risk point is the depreciation of the RMB. Yesterday’s plunge during trading was not accidental; it signals exchange rate regulation. If the central bank needs to stabilize the RMB, it may consider guiding capital flows into dollar assets, which directly impacts the risk appetite of A-shares. Historically, whenever such signals appear, the market often experiences sudden adjustments similar to those at the beginning of the year.

Before the market opens next week, it is recommended to focus on two directions: first, the performance of the RMB against the US dollar; second, the short-term support levels of A-shares. If the exchange rate continues to be under pressure, then defense becomes more important than offense.