2025-12-27 07:21:26

Recently, I've been paying close attention to the data from CME's "FedWatch" tool, and it's quite interesting.

Let's look at January first—the market's enthusiasm for rate cuts isn't very high, with only a 15.5% chance of a 25 basis point cut, while the majority (84.5%) still bets on no change. This indicates that the market's current expectations for policy are quite cautious.

But the outlook changes as we look further ahead. By March, the story starts to shift: the probability of maintaining the current stance drops to 51.8%, while the chance of a 25 basis point cut jumps to 42.2%. There's even a 6% chance of a 50 basis point cut in one go. Although the numbers are small, the trend is quite clear.

In simple terms, the market is betting that the Federal Reserve will stay steady in the near term, but as we move into mid-year, the probability of a policy shift toward easing is rapidly increasing. For the crypto space, this signal is quite significant—once a rate cut cycle begins, improved liquidity usually boosts the valuation of risk assets, and the crypto market often leads the way.

So, the key now isn't predicting what January will bring, but preparing for the possibilities in March and beyond.

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SnapshotLaborer

· 12-27 07:51

Oops, the probability of rate cuts in March jumped from 51.8% directly to 42.2%. This pace is really hard to keep up with. Wait, you said that when liquidity improves, cryptocurrencies are the first to be affected. Should I increase my position now or wait and see? In January, I was still taking it easy, but by March, I might have to prepare to take on positions. The cycle is really like mysticism. The data looks good, but I'm worried about too many variables. What if the Federal Reserve backtracks again? If the rate cut cycle really starts, what should those who haven't gotten on board do now? I'm thinking about whether I should gamble on the March opportunity.

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BanklessAtHeart

· 12-27 07:50

Well, March is the real showtime, and January's move was just a warm-up. What are you waiting for if you're not stacking coins now? Looking at CME data, it seems correct—the loose liquidity cycle is coming. Once the rate cut expectations are confirmed, whoever buys the dip will profit. It feels like the real opportunity window is around mid-year. The Fed's move is clever; risk assets are about to take off.

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OnchainGossiper

· 12-27 07:49

Oh wow, this data is insightful, March is really the turning point. Wait, let's think about it the other way around—if the Federal Reserve actually cuts interest rates, will liquidity be taken away? I think the key still depends on the economic data for the second quarter; these probability numbers will undergo a major reshuffle then. In plain language, now is really the time to panic if you're all in on real estate. If this wave truly follows the March turning point, those who accumulated assets in the crypto circle two months early are about to take off. But don't trust CME too much; Wall Street has too many tricks up its sleeve.

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TopEscapeArtist

· 12-27 07:49

Here we go again, the seemingly rational expectation of interest rate cuts... I said it wouldn't move in January, then a wave in March. Technically, there are indeed signs of a golden cross, but the problem is that we're always caught in the "preparation" phase, trying to bottom out right at the critical moment, right?

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SerRugResistant

· 12-27 07:48

Well, wait for this wave in March. Now is the time to accumulate steadily. --- The easing cycle is truly a warm breeze. When liquidity loosens, the coin prices take off. --- Although the 45 basis points possibility is small, I am optimistic about this direction. The real showtime is mid-year. --- Don't expect much in January. March is the main battleground for speculation. It's still not too late to prepare now. --- The Federal Reserve observation data is increasingly resembling a barometer for crypto. LOL. --- The shift from 51.8% to 42.2% is the real signal worth watching. Everything else is noise. --- Risk assets are rotating, and crypto is leading the way. This wave can't be avoided. --- Bro, I’m impressed with your analysis. See you in March.

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FUD_Vaccinated