#预测市场 The flow of data in prediction markets is often more honest than public opinion. Wash's probability has surged from 7% to 38% (Polymarket) and from 10% to 41% (Kalshi), reflecting a market re-pricing of Trump's prospects. Comparing this to Hasset's curve dropping from a high of 85% to 52%, I am more interested in the logic behind this rapid switch—support endorsements from JPMorgan CEO, vague statements like Trump "both Kevins are great," and signals at this Friday time point.

From an on-chain perspective, such shifts in policy expectations tend to be quickly reflected in the crypto markets—especially changes involving the Federal Reserve's stance, which directly influence capital allocation toward risk assets. Wash's relatively hawkish history may be interpreted by the market as differing expectations for interest rate paths, which could trigger large fund flows.

It is recommended to monitor the evolution of Federal Reserve Chair expectations in prediction markets over the next few days, as well as large on-chain transfers and exchange fund movements—these critical points of high certainty events are often accompanied by whale pre-positioning.