Recently, on-chain data has shown some interesting signals. The trading volume of Ethereum smart contracts has surged to approximately $6.74 trillion, with leverage ratios soaring to 5x, while price performance appears relatively lagging—this combination of numbers definitely warrants some reflection.

From a fundamental perspective, the spot-to-futures ratio has fallen to 0.2, in other words, for every real spot purchase, there are five futures positions hedging or leveraging long. The latest report from CryptoQuant also confirms this phenomenon—futures market has completely dominated price discovery, and on-chain volatility is being amplified infinitely. This structural imbalance has some historical precedent: every time there was a high-leverage frenzy, it usually ended with chain liquidations and violent shakeouts.

In the short-term rhythm, Ethereum faces a clear correction pressure. Once key support levels are broken, high-leverage positions are likely to trigger a chain reaction of stop-losses. Any negative news or macro changes could serve as a trigger. But this does not mean a long-term bearish outlook—speculative enthusiasm remains high, which actually indicates that market consensus is still intact. After shakeouts, a healthy upward trend can truly begin.

Overall, now is not the time to chase highs. Stay patient and wait for opportunities to emerge.