The end-of-year crypto market may seem calm on the surface, but turbulent currents are flowing beneath.

On December 26th, a moment that could shake the market is approaching—$23.7 billion worth of Bitcoin options are set to settle. This is the largest single-date options expiration in Bitcoin history, bar none.

You might think these are just numbers, but the implications go far beyond imagination.

During the Christmas holiday, Bitcoin has been oscillating between $85,000 and $90,000, seemingly uneventful. But this strange "calm" actually indicates that the market is waiting for something. Like the tension before a storm—everything is accumulating energy.

As someone who closely monitors on-chain data, I’ve noticed a pattern: after each large options settlement, the market direction tends to be decided on that Monday. September’s surge, October’s plunge, November’s slight correction—this year-end settlement of such magnitude warrants even more caution.

**Why is this settlement so critical?**

Options expiration isn’t just a matter of numbers. When an options contract expires, the "frozen" funds in the market are released. These funds either flow into the spot market or shift into new positions. It’s like opening a large sluice gate—inevitably, waves will follow.

How big is this scale? Between $23 billion and $28.5 billion. When have we seen such staggering figures before? Almost never. The most intense point is around $96,000—this level will see particularly fierce battles.

And coincidentally, it falls during the Christmas holiday, when market liquidity is already reduced. The impact of the settlement will be amplified. So what you’re seeing now as "calm" is actually a pause before the storm. The answer will be revealed next Monday, but it’s time to start paying close attention now.