#数字资产市场动态 The Bank of Japan just announced the largest interest rate hike in nearly 30 years—raising rates directly from 0.5% to 0.75%. At first glance, this should be a strong signal, right? But the market delivered a big reversal: the yen weakened instead of strengthening, even dropping to a historic low of 157, and the Nikkei index surged over 2%. What’s going on here?

**First Layer of Reversal: Central Bank Speech Trap**

The turning point is here—the market had already overhyped the rate hike. When the official actually announced the increase, no one was willing to buy in. Even more frustrating, the central bank announced the rate hike but then used phrases like "will proceed gradually in the future," which directly weakened the signal’s strength. Basically, it’s like stepping on the gas pedal and then shouting "shutting off immediately," causing the market to immediately lose confidence.

**Second Layer of Reversal: Geopolitical Supply Chain Disruptions**

Japan has long relied on imports to supplement energy and raw materials, which means it must continuously sell yen to buy dollars. Currently, the geopolitical landscape has shifted—the global supply chain is accelerating its shift from traditional routes to new ones. Japanese companies are forced to relocate factories to Southeast Asia and North America, with logistics and procurement costs soaring. The result? Demand for dollars becomes a bottomless pit, and the yen faces persistent selling pressure. The central bank’s interest rate policy appears powerless against these macro forces.

**Third Layer of Reversal: Capital’s True Game**

Typically, raising interest rates should make government bonds more attractive, but the reaction of global capital is straightforward—the yield on Japanese government bonds has limited room to rise and remains too low. Instead of buying bonds, investors are shifting to the Nikkei stock market. Why? Because compared to other global markets, Japanese stocks are relatively cheap, with a more attractive risk-reward ratio. As a result, large amounts of money flow into equities, government bonds are sidelined, and the yen becomes a supporting actor. Digital assets like $BTC and $ETH are also gaining attention in this global capital reallocation, as markets seek higher yields elsewhere.

**A New Era of Signals**

This scene fully exposes a phenomenon: the traditional toolkit of central banks (interest rate adjustments) is gradually losing effectiveness in the face of geopolitical shocks, cross-border capital flows, and supply chain dynamics. The determinants of exchange rates and asset prices are increasingly driven not just by individual economic policies but by global supply chain patterns, geopolitical relations, and the pursuit of profit by capital.

How low can the yen go? The answer to this question may no longer depend solely on the Bank of Japan’s headquarters in Tokyo but on the next moves of Washington, Beijing, and the global supply chain chessboard.