#美联储降息政策 After watching the controversy over Powell's recent rate cut, what flashed through my mind was the shadow of the 2018 "balance sheet reduction storm." History tends to repeat its script, just with different characters.

This time, the 9:3 split in the vote, and Goolsbee's opposition, reminded me that the consensus within the Federal Reserve has never been as solid as outsiders imagine. The three paths to rate cuts are on the table—waiting for inflation to fall back, waiting for employment to worsen, or reorganizing personnel—each one reveals a sense of helplessness. Especially the third, which is the real covert battle.

I've experienced too many cycles of "presidential pressure versus Fed resistance." From Greenspan's era to now, the word "independence" has become louder, but the actual space for action has been shrinking year by year. Timiraos's metaphor about "raptors testing the fence" is quite harsh—seems like the moat is solid, but the real test has yet to come.

What impressed me most was the 2011 debt ceiling crisis, when everyone also believed that the bottom line of the system was untouchable. And what happened? It was redefined time and again. Now, the hawkish voices like Goolsbee still exist, indicating that the checks and balances are still alive, but how the situation will evolve by 2026 depends on how the three chess games of inflation, employment, and political bargaining play out.

If inflation truly falls as expected, rate cuts may arrive as scheduled. But if inflation proves more sticky than anticipated, and political pressure continues to rise, then we are facing a dangerous triangle. History tells me that this is the time that tests the wisdom of decision-makers the most—and also the easiest time for black swans to appear.