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Recently, a grand drama has been unfolding in the global financial circle: Japan just announced it will achieve a budget surplus for the first time in 28 years, "braking," while the US is directly "flooring the accelerator." The monetary policies of these two major economies are heading in completely opposite directions, and the political game behind the scenes is quietly rewriting the fate of global assets.

Since Trump took office, in order to push forward large-scale fiscal spending plans, he has exerted unprecedented pressure on the Federal Reserve. He publicly demanded to cut interest rates from the current 4.25%-4.5% directly to 1%, with words full of dissatisfaction. Even more radical actions followed—he began to insert his own people into the Federal Reserve Board, with the latest nominee being the Chair of the White House Economic Advisory Council, who has consistently advocated aggressive rate cuts in previous decisions. It’s clear to all that Trump is playing a personnel game: either the Fed Chair obeys or gets replaced.

How much pressure is Powell under? Saying "completely depoliticized" is easy; doing it is as difficult as climbing to the sky. Inside the Federal Reserve, opinions on the rate-cutting path are divided—some officials advocate a significant 50 basis point cut, while others firmly oppose any rate cuts. Under this tense political atmosphere, the Fed has repeatedly retreated in peripheral areas like personnel and budgets, but the core decision-making power on interest rates remains in contention.

The outcome of this confrontation is highly significant. The independence of the Federal Reserve is the cornerstone of the global credibility of the US dollar—if this cornerstone is manipulated politically, global investors’ trust in dollar assets could collapse instantly. If Trump succeeds in pushing aggressive rate cuts, opening the liquidity floodgates for the dollar, what will be the consequences? Global asset prices could face a major upheaval.

Even more interesting is the international comparison: Japan now wants fiscal tightening, while the US might unleash a monetary frenzy. One country tightening while the other loosening will cause volatility in safe-haven assets like the yen, gold, and cryptocurrencies to become increasingly intense. Assets like BTC and gold, which serve as hedges, may undergo a new round of valuation reassessment.

From a market perspective, this "civil war" between Trump and the Federal Reserve is far more than just policy—it directly determines the future direction of global liquidity, the credibility outlook of the dollar, and the re-pricing of various assets. Who do you think will come out on top—political realism winning, or the Fed’s century-old tradition of independence holding its ground?