Recently, there has indeed been an increase in discussions about macro perspectives in the crypto circle. I also have to be honest — this year's market rhythm has been a bit strange. The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, Japan and Europe follow suit with monetary easing, it feels like central banks around the world are tacitly injecting liquidity into the financial system. For crypto enthusiasts, this wave of capital contains both opportunities and risks. Today, let's talk about the logic behind it.

**Global Central Banks' "Celebration Mode"**

The Federal Reserve's actions are quite swift. After the expectation of rate cuts surged to 92%, Bitcoin directly soared to $118,000, and Ethereum also broke through $4,300. The underlying logic is quite straightforward: money becomes cheap, earning interest in banks is no longer attractive, and high-risk crypto assets naturally become outlets for hot money seeking returns.

Japan is not idle either. Prime Minister Sanae Noda's government continues to push aggressive monetary easing, launching a stimulus plan of 21.3 trillion yen. The yen has depreciated to 157.9, and local inflation has hit 3%. The policy logic is to persist with "continuous easing" — the more the yen depreciates, the more Japanese funds seek overseas yields, and high-volatility assets like cryptocurrencies naturally attract capital.

**Hidden Concerns Behind the Short-term Frenzy**

History shows that during rate-cutting cycles, crypto markets tend to surge wildly. In 2020, during the Fed's zero-interest-rate policy, Bitcoin began a rapid rally from its lows. The current situation seems similar, but we need to think clearly: how long can the gains from liquidity accumulation last? When will it turn into a bubble? These are all worth being cautious about.